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- Some 83 countries, accounting for 32.4% of the world’s population, are on track to achieve Education For All (EFA) by the 2015 deadline set at the World Education Forum in Dakar (Senegal) two and a half years ago.
- 43 countries have made progress in the 1990s but at least one goal is likely to be missed by 2015. This category represents 35.8 percent of the world’s population, including four high-population countries - Bangladesh, China, Egypt and Indonesia.
- 28 countries, accounting for over 26 percent of the world’s population, may not achieve any of the three measurable Dakar goals: universal primary education (UPE), gender equality and the halving of illiteracy rates. Two-thirds of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa,but they also include India and Pakistan.
- Universal Primary Education: in the 1990s, rapid enrolment growth resumed in South and West Asia, the Arab States and North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean. It remained slow in sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia, while levels fell in some Central an East European countries. At current rates of progress, UPE is unlikely to be reached in 57 countries, based on the 128 countries for which net enrolment data are available. The most serious enrolment problems occur in some Arab States and in sub-Saharan Africa. Based on 1999 data, an estimated 115.4 million school-age children were out of school, of which 56% were girls.
- Gender equality: girls’ enrolment improved in all regions during the 1990s. Out of 153 countries for which disaggregated data are available, 86 countries have achieved gender parity. Of the remaining 67, only 18 have a good chance of attaining the goal by 2015 (but not 2005). Of the remaining 49, just fewer than 50% are in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Adult literacy: from roughly 70% adult literacy in 1980, the figure increased to 80% in 2000. In absolute numbers, the gains are modest, from 870 million people defined as illiterate in 1980, to 862 million in 2000, of which 61% live in India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Unless a much greater effort is made, a total of 79 countries will not be able to halve their rate of illiteracy by 2015.
- At least 73 countries are dealing with internal crises or are engaged in post-conflict reconstruction, greatly increasing the costs of achieving education for all. Recent history, states the report, suggests that at least four or five countries are likely to face major complex humanitarian emergencies over the next decade.
- Looming global teacher shortage: an extra 15 to 35 million more teachers will be needed to achieve universal primary education by 2015. Three million extra teachers are required for sub-Saharan Africa alone. Contrary to most other parts of the world, pupil teacher ratios have been rising again in recent years to a regional average of 40 students per teacher, compared to 25 per teacher in Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia and the Pacific, and the Arab States and North Africa.
- HIV/AIDS: the Report estimates that the pandemic alone will add US$975 million to the annual bill for achieving UPE. Additional costs are likely to be incurred from the training and the salaries of additional teachers, introducing HIV/AIDS throughout the school curriculum, increasing counselling services.
- Resource requirements: major education and economic reforms will be required in many countries to achieve EFA goals, along with a significant increase in budgetary resources available for basic education.
- Aid flows: the real values of both total and education aid between 1990 and 2001 fell sharply. Total bilateral aid to education, which accounts for 70 percent of all such financial support, fell by 16 percent over the decade, from $5 billion to $4 billion. The most dramatic decline occurred in 2000, when commitments fell toUS$3.5 billion. Multilateral aid also declined sharply over the same period.
- An extra $5.6 billion will be needed annually to achieve the UPE and gender goals alone. This gap is at least double the World Bank’s most recent estimate. The Report’s projection forecasts higher public spending for HIV/AIDS, effective programmes for girls and support to education in countries experiencing conflict an emergency.
- The external funding to basic education of US$1.45 billion in 2000 is approximately equivalent to one quarter of the additional external assistance that is likely to be needed each year to 2015 to achieve the two Millennium Development/EFA goals, with much of it concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa.
- A new global approach to financing development was set out at the United Nations International Conference on Financing for Development at Monterrey (2002). If the Monterrey commitment of US$12 billion by 2006 were to be spent in the same pattern as the current average across all sectors, US$1 billion would be made available to the education sector, of which US$0.3 billion would be allocated to basic education. A further US$1.2 billion additional annual assistance was pledged during 2002 by the World Bank, Japan and non-EU bilaterals. Thus the G8 pledges would need to meet around US$4.4 billion of the US$5.6 billion anticipated in the Report as the external aid requirement to achieve the UPE and gender goals by 2015.
- The Report questions some aspects of aid programmes which provide budget support to countries with well-designed poverty reduction strategies and credible EFA plans. This approach tends to reward those countries with a stable political culture and a developed policy tradition, and exclude other countries that are in most urgent need of support. |
